Such costly money

All monetarnye recent years, the authorities see as their main internal enemy, inflation. Combat, they are invariably correct. That's as prepared in 2004, the CBR document the main activities was recorded: «... the main objective of a uniform state monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Russia jointly with the Government of the Russian Federation, is a steady decline in inflation and maintaining it at a low level».

The origins of Russia's inflation

By itself, the goal is specific objections - trotter must tame inflation. The question is another: what ideologues see the course of its reasons. Almost all of speech comes down to one point: the economy is too much money that it is incapable of stomach bad food, digest, and you need a lot of money by any means limited.

But whether the cause of inflation in that country is full of money? Figures show that the situation just the opposite. Today, the level of monetization of the Russian economy is only 20% of GDP - is one of the lowest in the world of performance. In developed countries it reaches 70%, some of whom are struggling not with inflation but deflation. But in China the rate of monetization in general exceed 200%. Where, in this case, the origins of Russia's inflation? As you know, money is also good to sell and buy, and hence they have their price. In Russia the price of money is very high, and it was this factor primarily stimulates the inflationary process. And just with our monetary authorities did not lead the fight. Moreover, whether for evil intent, or because of fatal misunderstanding doing a lot to the price of money we did not fall, but rather increased. The shortage and surplus money So now, inflation is not monetary reasons ee produces no surplus of money in the market, but their disadvantage. The money we have become expensive when the counters at the banks as a cash product. The government and Central Bank have strict policies «Monetary Management», when the gold supply grows at 20% faster than the monetary base. According to experts, it is already at $ 20-25 billion more than the required level. Bank of Russia constantly complains that had to increase the number of rubles in circulation. This is true, but in order to understand how this affects increasing cash flow, you need to see where it actually runs? The main mass of his supplied in TEC and other export-oriented industries. Each of them has its own banks, where the money and get stuck. Today on deposits with the Central Bank has accumulated about the same means, and as correspondent for other banks serving the payment transactions. Thus, the channels of inter-sectoral cross the capital in Russia functioned poorly. This is equally true as to the inter-bank, and the cross-holding financial networks. In the end, it turns out that in general pereizbytke means neeksportny sector faces a shortage of money. Therefore, when the Central Bank assures us that the Russian economy suffers from over-capital, it is only right in part that relates to the commodity sector. As for the rest, there are living in a monetary shortfall.

Non-cash heating demand

The very structure of the monetary base, as well as the structure of our exports are very archaic: cash in 2 times more than the money in the accounts of banks. And, as you know, the main contribution to the formation of the money supply has a non-cash. Today, however, is involved in its creation, only 1 / 3 issued and funds. Academician Abel Aganbegyan believes that it is necessary to waive the cash flow, strong move to the checks and cards. To do this, should be sent to all banks pay for credit card on her account, issuing checks to limit the cash flow. Do not allow the bank in the hands of one issue, for example, over 50 thousand rubles. Try to U.S. $ 10 thousand to get cash. We need to get to the head of the office, describe in detail what needed nalichka. And people are paying the purchase card, always spend more, so demand warmed.

If you look at the structure of Russia's money supply, it is a very peculiar picture. Around 100 billion rubles. account for deposit banks belonging to the commodity oligarchic groups, 250 billion rubles, a nation settled in the Fauré, and only 150 billion rubles, or slightly more than $ 5 billion, is involved in the credit issue. One of the problems of the economy - the ability to determine the cost of credit resources, as in location, and with their involvement. In the world of this issue is solved with the help of derivatives on interest rates, for example, by using interest rate futures. Under current Russian legislation, derivatives may only be at the core asset and the interest rate is not. Today, the financial authorities were conducting an active «New Deal», which can be called «saving at the expense of investment». All budgets are in the treasury, international reserves are increasing, but do not work on the economy, plus it creates a Stabilization Fund. The total amount of financial resources, authorities is estimated at 3 trillion. rubles, of which approximately 500 billion is spinning inside Russia, the rest are without any movement on the balance sheet of the Central Bank, or placed in low-yield assets abroad.

In doing so, the leadership of the country permanently, as prayer, is firmly on the need to attract foreign investment but does not use the approximately $ 100 billion of their own free resources.

«This is a robbery!»

Until now, the Central Bank is paying little attention to reducing the cost of banking business in Russia are among the highest in the world. Experts estimate that costs in the domestic banking sector is about 10% of the volume of payments, while in the EU, this figure stands at less than 2%. It is not the one-year banking community is fighting hard with the Central Bank to reduce rates of deductions in the form. Moreover, in developed countries and countries in Eastern Europe, the percentage of contributions to the funds of compulsory redundancy is reduced. For example, in Poland it is set at 3.5%, Slovenia - 4.5%, in Hungary the figure was reduced from 12% to 5%. In the United States Reservation Only transaction accounts, deposits of legal entities and liabilities in the euro.

Only in Russia reserve requirements have not changed for 4 years. The last revision was made in 2000, bringing the rate on deposits of individuals is set at 7% and for deposits of legal entities in rubles and foreign currency - 10%. According to the Vice-President of ARB Anatoly Milyukova - a real robbery. 7% of the deposits the bank has authorized the Central Bank, but no one is exempt from the service of this amount, the need to charge her interest on deposits. At the same time, the bank bears the loss due to the fact that the money is not used as a credit. As a result, the estimated A. Milyukova, the bank loses 26% of the profits. Reduction of deductions in the form of 3-fold increased to 1.5 times earnings.

Vice-president of BDA believes that the methodological question of Faure do not mature, there is no research on the functions and modes of organization of the Fund. ARB offers in six months to develop a concept to reduce the payments to the CDF, but it has not been adopted because of high inflation. However, inflationary process does not depend on the fact that the reserve seized 270 billion rubles, due to monopoly prices and other factors. If you pay a significant portion of FORA banks, they could lend to the economy increased.

Lack of FORA yet that it freezes the money in the long term, and banks are in the market, short-term resources. As a result of reduced liquidity of credit institutions, limited by the possibility of granting long credits. Carrying the losses, banks are forced to cover them by increasing the value of their services and credit resources. This chain leads to higher prices throughout the economy. However, all central banks also lowered payments to the Fund, the mandatory reserve fund-raising entities in exchange for 1%. Difficult to rationally explain it, it most likely way to change things so that nothing has changed. Banks took the news as the hand, which is actually nothing.

Track Miserly Knight

It's no secret that the country needs investment. It is necessary to update the funds, amortization of more than 50% and the average service life of machinery and equipment - more than 20 years. The level of capital investment is very low - 18-20% of GDP. No country has been able, with a stable rate of investment to develop the pace of 6-7% per year.

At the same time, according to World Bank estimates that in a country which, like Russia, is trying to conduct a large-scale modernization of the economy, investment must be at least 60-70% of GDP. In countries that have rapidly evolved over a long period of time (10 years or more) - Spain, Ireland, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, - target of investment ranged from 25% to 40%. However, the State concerned does not increase investment, moreover, such a policy as it considers a dangerous hotbed of inflation could ignite. The government prefers to pursue a course on the full increase in savings. Savings is a budget surplus - it is dead money, which is just and depreciate. Savings is a huge increase in reserves of the Central Bank. Academic Aganbegyan leads such calculations: the sufficiency of the rule of international reserves of Central Bank, if it is considered by world standards - $ 25 billion In view of the fact that we have a large debt, high risks and high dependence on the world market, should add another $ 15 billion - to get maximum $ 40 billion We have almost twice as much. This policy reminds Miserly Knight: all around poor, there is no investment, buildings, machines and equipment - old, but we put in the chest and gold currency.

Recently, the Central Bank has published information on the where the gold reserves. It turned out that half of them we buy securities of developed countries such as United States, yielding 2-3% returns per year. Our financial leaders believe that, piling money into coffers inviolable funds, adversely affected by inflation. In fact, this is a measure of its ability to increase, as well as a shortage of money leads to an increase in their value.

As a result, we not only have inflation, but also limit the opportunity for investment, reducing the scope of the loan.

In many countries, to stimulate the economy believe it necessary to go to the budget deficit. In the U.S. it is even prescribed by law for the Fed, which reads: «The Board of Directors of the Fed and the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain a long-term growth of monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the long-term economic potential of increasing production. This is done in order to effectively ensure the maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates ».

That would take us to such a law! So in fact, and the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance against the mountain face. What is the great secret of such a policy? It is very simple. Over the past years, our monetary authorities have accumulated experience in combating inflation. The mechanisms that for this use, very simple. And the lower the cost of money more difficult - this need for more subtle tools. And what to think and to invent when you can act on the primitive pattern.